PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Will Spain win on 2026-10-03?

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 3 daysLiquidity: $66.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $11.5KEvent: Spain vs. Czechia
89.5¢
YES
10.5¢
NO
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly2Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:9 trades$20.3K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYYES$12.1K@ 89¢·quavoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$8
6h
+$231
tracked
$20.3K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 3, 2026 If Spain wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $8
6hYES · $231
24hYES · $20.3K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current89.5¢
VWAP 24h88.6¢▲ above by 0.9pp
VWAP 7d88.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$232
85¢
← now
$20.1K
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYYES$12.1K@ 88.7¢
quavoo0xdc41…dd7e
🐋—about 11 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

China Open: Nuno Borges vs Novak Djokovic
25.5¢$1.3Mpriority56Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Group C
46.5¢$915.8Kpriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions (BO5) - World Star Challengers Invitational Playoffs
100.0¢$774.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$680.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$517.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions - Game 3 Winner
0.1¢$450.4Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$443.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
LoL: T1 Academy vs Galions - Game 4 Winner
100.0¢$412.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

quavooYes$18.3K
BUY VWAP 88.7¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.