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Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $14.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $21.8KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
40.0¢
Vitality
60.0¢
Aurora Gaming
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly10Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution60Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%
24h sample:16 trades$34.8K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 17 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$13.0K@ 46¢·CORGI8

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$102
6h
−$454
tracked
$34.8K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 17 minutes old.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-20 21:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Grand Final match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 4, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 20, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
aaaa2984 linked markets · $57.9K gross
0xc323…00772 linked markets · $49.2K gross
5e46h2 linked markets · $40.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Vitality UP 11.5pp · near-book depth $13.6K → $13.7K · 20s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAurora Gaming · $102
6hAurora Gaming · $454
24hAurora Gaming · $454

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current40.0¢
VWAP 24h54.3¢▼ below by 14.3pp
VWAP 7d54.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$2
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$13.4K
50¢
$21.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$100
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$13.0K@ 46.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO5) - StarLadder StarSeries Playoffs
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

CORGI8Aurora Gaming$13.0K
BUY VWAP 46.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.