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Games Total: O/U 4.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $23.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $87.3KEvent: LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs
32.0¢
Over
68.0¢
Under
2.0¢
Spread
anomaly27Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:16 trades$36.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $33 net·2 wallets·$33 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$26.8K@ 78¢·bloodmaster

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$285
6h
−$25.7K
tracked
$36.2K

2 verified profitable wallets: Over · $33 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
2.0¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://gol.gg/esports/home
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion play 5 or more games in this series.

•If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal match between FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if FlyQuest and Shopify Rebellion play 5 or more games in this series. If fewer than 5 games are played, this market will resolve to "Under". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the total, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 9, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 25, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0xf201…527e4 linked markets · $43.0K gross
5e46h3 linked markets · $35.7K gross
five51203 linked markets · $34.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Under@ 77.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h STALLED +1.0pp
Latest book event: Under UP 17.0pp · near-book depth $33 → $688 · 38s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hOver · $285
6hUnder · $25.7K
24hUnder · $26.8K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current32.0¢
VWAP 24h22.6¢▲ above by 9.4pp
VWAP 7d22.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$56
35¢
$234
30¢
← now
$44
25¢
$2.2K
20¢
$34.8K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$26.8K@ 78.0¢
bloodmaster0x58f8…dc70
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

bloodmasterUnder$30.4K
BUY VWAP 77.9¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.