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Will Israel win on 2026-10-04?

Sports→Settlement: NOLiquidity: $325.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $129.7KEvent: Republic of Ireland vs. Israel
0.0¢
YES payout
100.0¢
NO payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:53 trades$45.0K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 36%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 849 min agoofficial metadata 738 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:NO · $948 net·4 wallets·$3.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNO$19.6K@ 75¢·coinlaundry

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome NO. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-04 18:45 UTC
Event constraint
Mutually exclusive
Resolution source: https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
Outcome meaning

•If Israel wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for October 4, 2026 If Israel wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Flaznorp2 linked markets · $38.2K gross
UpTheBlues2 linked markets · $9.9K gross
0x0x0x0x0x0x0x0x0x0x2 linked markets · $3.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: NO DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $24.4K → $186 · 3s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor YES; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hYES · $0
6hYES · $2.1K
24hNO · $18.4K

YES price VWAP

Volume-weighted YES price. NO fills are converted to the complementary YES probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h17.7¢▼ below by 17.7pp
VWAP 7d17.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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YES price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$23.7K
20¢
$9.0K
15¢
$79
10¢
$386
5¢
$2.2K
0¢
← now
$10.8K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNO$19.6K@ 75.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 20 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coinlaundryNo$19.6K
BUY VWAP 75.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.