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Spread: Kentucky (-20.5)

● quote 41s ago
Sports→Closes: 8 minutesLiquidity: $117.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $119.7KEvent: South Alabama vs. Kentucky
51.5¢
Kentucky
48.5¢
South Alabama
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%
24h sample:16 trades$57.2K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 21 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSouth Alabama$19.5K@ 49¢·mooseborzoi

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Kentucky pressure: $6.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$6.8K
6h
−$12.7K
tracked
$57.2K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 21 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Kentucky or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 16:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Kentucky" if Kentucky win the game by 21 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Alabama".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 12:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kentucky" if Kentucky win the game by 21 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "South Alabama". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY South Alabama@ 49.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Kentucky; negative values favor South Alabama. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKentucky · $6.8K
6hSouth Alabama · $12.7K
24hSouth Alabama · $11.6K

Kentucky price VWAP

Volume-weighted Kentucky price. South Alabama fills are converted to the complementary Kentucky probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current51.5¢
VWAP 24h51.5¢▲ above by 0.0pp
VWAP 7d51.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Kentucky price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$69.8K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYSouth Alabama$19.5K@ 49.0¢
mooseborzoi0x84cf…2f63
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

mooseborzoiSouth Alabama$19.5K
BUY VWAP 49.0¢·1 fill
wr0ngw4yb3tt0rKentucky$12.3K
BUY VWAP 51.6¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.