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UCLA vs. Maryland

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $285.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $250.9KEvent: UCLA vs. Maryland
55.5¢
UCLA
44.5¢
Maryland
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection31Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$158.8K tracked20% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:UCLA · $113.3K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$115.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUCLA$84.2K@ 54¢·Kch-Temp

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

UCLA pressure: $43.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$43.9K
6h
+$127.3K
tracked
$158.8K

2 verified profitable wallets: UCLA · $113.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +1.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from UCLA or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 17:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "UCLA" if UCLA win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Maryland" if Maryland win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between UCLA and Maryland, scheduled for September 26 at 1:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "UCLA" if UCLA win the game. This market will resolve to "Maryland" if Maryland win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY UCLA@ 55.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY UCLA@ 55.0¢49m ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY UCLA@ 54.0¢3h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor UCLA; negative values favor Maryland. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUCLA · $43.9K
6hUCLA · $127.3K
24hUCLA · $122.5K

UCLA price VWAP

Volume-weighted UCLA price. Maryland fills are converted to the complementary UCLA probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current55.5¢
VWAP 24h54.0¢▲ above by 1.5pp
VWAP 7d54.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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UCLA price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$32.4K
50¢
$126.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUCLA$15.2K@ 56.0¢
Champions260xf91e…4f48
🐋—2 minutes ago
BUYUCLA$17.1K@ 55.0¢
texaskid0xc807…c12b
🐋—22 minutes ago
BUYUCLA$26.4K@ 54.0¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYUCLA$84.2K@ 53.9¢
Kch-Temp0x9243…658e
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Kch-TempUCLA$114.4K
BUY VWAP 53.9¢·3 fills
texaskidUCLA$18.4K
BUY VWAP 54.9¢·2 fills
Champions26UCLA$15.2K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.