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Spread: LSU (-8.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 7 hoursLiquidity: $108.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $8.0KEvent: Texas A&M vs. LSU
48.5¢
LSU
51.5¢
Texas A&M
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$1.1K trackedsource coverage 13%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 138 min agoofficial metadata 100 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTexas A&M$17.1K@ 50¢·wr0ngw4yb3tt0r

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$1.0K
tracked
$1.1K

1 verified profitable wallet: LSU · $1.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 138 minutes old.
  • •Official market metadata is 100 minutes old.
  • •Less than 7h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-26 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for September 26 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "LSU" if LSU win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Texas A&M". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r2 linked markets · $45.0K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $10.6K gross
ic4cream2 linked markets · $3.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor LSU; negative values favor Texas A&M. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLSU · $0
6hLSU · $1.0K
24hLSU · $1.1K

LSU price VWAP

Volume-weighted LSU price. Texas A&M fills are converted to the complementary LSU probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h49.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d50.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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LSU price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$18.8K
45¢
← now
$1.1K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 50¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTexas A&M$17.1K@ 49.8¢
wr0ngw4yb3tt0r0x224a…a3d5
🐋—1 day ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

wr0ngw4yb3tt0rTexas A&M$17.1K
BUY VWAP 49.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.