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Louisville vs. NC State: O/U 57.5

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $23.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $95.5KEvent: Louisville vs. NC State
39.5¢
Over
60.5¢
Under
15.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection8Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution71Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$36.2K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 50 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Over · $6.0K net·3 wallets·$6.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUnder$19.1K@ 54¢·primm

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Under pressure: $2.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$2.9K
6h
−$21.3K
tracked
$36.2K

3 verified profitable wallets: Over · $6.0K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
15.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 50 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 15.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Under or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 19:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Over" if Louisville and NC State combine to score 58 or more points in this game.

•If the combined total is less than 58, this market will resolve to "Under".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 3:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Louisville and NC State combine to score 58 or more points in this game. If the combined total is less than 58, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Kch-Temp2 linked markets · $75.5K gross
ic4cream3 linked markets · $11.5K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $10.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Over; negative values favor Under. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUnder · $2.9K
6hUnder · $21.3K
24hUnder · $21.3K

Over price VWAP

Volume-weighted Over price. Under fills are converted to the complementary Over probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h45.2¢▼ below by 5.7pp
VWAP 7d45.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Over price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$33.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$0
30¢
$2.9K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYUnder$19.1K@ 53.9¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

primmUnder$22.0K
BUY VWAP 55.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.