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Spread: South Alabama (-13.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 13 minutesLiquidity: $106.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $145.0KEvent: Louisiana-Monroe vs. South Alabama
48.5¢
South Alabama
51.5¢
Louisiana-Monroe
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets42Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 62%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:21 trades$68.5K tracked5% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 85 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:South Alabama · $6.8K net·3 wallets·$16.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLouisiana-Monroe$21.9K@ 51¢·justwins

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$3.7K
tracked
$68.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: South Alabama · $6.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 62% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 85 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama win the game by 14 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Louisiana-Monroe".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "South Alabama" if South Alabama win the game by 14 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Louisiana-Monroe". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Louisiana-Monroe@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Alabama; negative values favor Louisiana-Monroe. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSouth Alabama · $0
6hSouth Alabama · $3.7K
24hSouth Alabama · $3.7K

South Alabama price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Alabama price. Louisiana-Monroe fills are converted to the complementary South Alabama probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current48.5¢
VWAP 24h48.6¢▼ below by 0.1pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Alabama price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$4.6K
45¢
← now
$63.9K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLouisiana-Monroe$21.9K@ 51.3¢
justwins0xa2cc…0cbc
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

justwinsLouisiana-Monroe$27.8K
BUY VWAP 51.2¢·2 fills
HomeRunHazardSouth Alabama$11.5K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.