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Spread: USC (-7.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 1 hourLiquidity: $7.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $183.6KEvent: Washington vs. USC
41.5¢
USC
58.5¢
Washington
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets44Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution69Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:15 trades$89.3K tracked13% 🐋source coverage 49%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 26 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:USC · $3.7K net·3 wallets·$8.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYWashington$42.7K@ 53¢·lalalalalalallalalalala

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

USC pressure: $1.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.2K
6h
−$56.5K
tracked
$89.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: USC · $3.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +6.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 26 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from USC or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "USC" if USC win the game by 8 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "USC" if USC win the game by 8 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Washington". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $84.7K gross
quavoo2 linked markets · $23.5K gross
HomeRunHazard3 linked markets · $15.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Washington@ 53.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Washington@ 51.0¢5h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: USC DOWN 6.0pp · near-book depth $7.0K → $3.7K · 71s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor USC; negative values favor Washington. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUSC · $1.2K
6hWashington · $56.5K
24hWashington · $54.2K

USC price VWAP

Volume-weighted USC price. Washington fills are converted to the complementary USC probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h48.1¢▼ below by 6.6pp
VWAP 7d48.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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USC price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$2
55¢
$0
50¢
$7.0K
45¢
$82.4K
40¢
← now
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYWashington$42.7K@ 52.6¢
lalalalalalallalalalala0xe178…fe19
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYWashington$18.0K@ 51.4¢
Kosherlocks0x8239…d9a3
🐋—about 5 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

lalalalalalallalalalalaWashington$42.7K
BUY VWAP 52.6¢·1 fill
KosherlocksWashington$18.0K
BUY VWAP 51.4¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.