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Spread: Bears (-1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 1 hourLiquidity: $1.6MOfficial 24h Vol: $20.2KEvent: Bears vs. Packers
1.3¢
Bears
98.8¢
Packers
1.3¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution80Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:7 trades$24.1K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 54 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Packers · $1.5K net·2 wallets·$1.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPackers$15.6K@ 52¢·WhattDoyoumean

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$36
6h
−$20.0K
tracked
$24.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Packers · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.3¢displayed spread

Workable spread; verify depth and the $10K slippage estimate below.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +47.4pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 54 minutes old.
  • •Less than 1h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 47.4pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 2 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Packers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Packers, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Bears" if the Bears win the game by 2 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Packers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $98.6K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $40.4K gross
0x9b11…53752 linked markets · $26.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Packers2h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Packers@ 52.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +15.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
Latest book event: Packers UP 6.0pp · near-book depth $471 → $2.1K · 33s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Bears; negative values favor Packers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPackers · $36
6hPackers · $20.0K
24hPackers · $20.0K

Bears price VWAP

Volume-weighted Bears price. Packers fills are converted to the complementary Bears probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.3¢
VWAP 24h48.4¢▼ below by 47.1pp
VWAP 7d48.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Bears price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$3.5K
45¢
$22.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$36
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$15.6K@ 52.0¢
WhattDoyoumean0x8660…93ed
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

WhattDoyoumeanPackers$15.6K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.