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Spread: Packers (-3.5)

● quote just now
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 2 hoursLiquidity: $140.9KOfficial 24h Vol: —Event: Bears vs. Packers
58.0¢
Packers
42.0¢
Bears
10.0¢
Spread
anomaly32Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:8 trades$36.6K tracked13% 🐋source coverage unavailableBUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPackers$18.6K@ 33¢·0xbc43…96d3

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$350
6h
−$5.8K
tracked
$36.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Bears · $9.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
10.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 10.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 2h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Bears and Packers, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Packers" if the Packers win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Bears". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ferrariChampions20262 linked markets · $98.6K gross
HomeRunHazard4 linked markets · $40.4K gross
0x9b11…53752 linked markets · $9.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Packers UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $22.1K → $6.2K · 53s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Packers; negative values favor Bears. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPackers · $350
6hBears · $5.8K
24hPackers · $1.3K

Packers price VWAP

Volume-weighted Packers price. Bears fills are converted to the complementary Packers probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current58.0¢
VWAP 24h32.9¢▲ above by 25.1pp
VWAP 7d32.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Packers price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$3
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$347
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$36.3K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYPackers$18.6K@ 33.0¢0xbc43…96d3🐋—about 7 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xbc43…96d3Packers$18.6K
BUY VWAP 33.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.