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Spread: Cardinals (-3.5)

● quote 43s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: 1 dayLiquidity: $136.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $26.3KEvent: Lions vs. Cardinals
20.5¢
Cardinals
79.5¢
Lions
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 64%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$15.2K tracked25% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 376 min agoofficial metadata 7 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLions$10.2K@ 80¢·HomeRunHazard

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$15.2K

1 verified profitable wallet: Lions · $10.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 64% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 376 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 20:25 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cardinals" if the Cardinals win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lions".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Lions and Cardinals, scheduled for October 11 at 4:25 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cardinals" if the Cardinals win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Lions". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cardinals; negative values favor Lions. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCardinals · $0
6hCardinals · $0
24hLions · $5.2K

Cardinals price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cardinals price. Lions fills are converted to the complementary Cardinals probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current20.5¢
VWAP 24h20.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d20.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cardinals price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
← now
$15.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLions$10.2K@ 80.0¢
HomeRunHazard0x5268…135d
🐋—about 6 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HomeRunHazardLions$10.2K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.