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Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)

● quote 17s ago
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $285.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $366.6KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
0.1¢
Vitality
100.0¢
Aurora Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection21Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets37Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 78%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:42 trades$186.1K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 22 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $15.7K net·2 wallets(1🐋)·$28.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAurora Gaming$55.8K@ 100¢·fantasy7788

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $38.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$38.3K
6h
+$30.6K
tracked
$186.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $15.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 78% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +46.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 22 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 46.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality wins 2 or more maps than Aurora Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 10, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fantasy77883 linked markets · $120.3K gross
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $60.0K gross
0x076d…8d4c3 linked markets · $57.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 54.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -9.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 53.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -11.0pp1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Aurora Gaming UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $16.4K → $8.9K · 47s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Vitality; negative values favor Aurora Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $38.3K
6hVitality · $30.6K
24hVitality · $25.7K

Vitality price VWAP

Volume-weighted Vitality price. Aurora Gaming fills are converted to the complementary Vitality probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h28.4¢▼ below by 28.4pp
VWAP 7d28.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Vitality price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.6K
50¢
$5
45¢
$106.7K
40¢
$2.3K
35¢
$0
30¢
$5
25¢
$89
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$1.0K
0¢
← now
$74.4K

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$16.6K@ 99.9¢
Sisyphus.0xfc25…1f7f
🐋—23 minutes ago
SELLAurora Gaming$55.8K@ 99.8¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYAurora Gaming$30.0K@ 53.6¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$21.9K@ 52.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
49.5¢$1.3Mpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner
100.0¢$705.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner
30.0¢$182.6Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

fantasy7788Aurora Gaming$30.0K
BUY VWAP 53.6¢·1 fill
0x076d…8d4cAurora Gaming$21.9K
BUY VWAP 52.0¢·1 fill
Sisyphus.Aurora Gaming$16.6K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·1 fill
meoooowVitality$12.9K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.