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Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Esports · Counter-StrikeCloses: about 6 hoursLiquidity: $66.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $619.7KEvent: Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
21.5¢
Aurora Gaming
78.5¢
Vitality
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets36Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution88Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority60Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 89%💡 5 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$356.4K tracked11% 🐋source coverage 57%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 5 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Aurora Gaming · $6.1K net·5 wallets(1🐋)·$17.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAurora Gaming$40.7K@ 24¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

REVIEW Vitality SETUP
What the tape says

Vitality pressure: $107.4K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$107.4K
6h
−$156.8K
tracked
$356.4K

5 verified profitable wallets: Aurora Gaming · $6.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 89% · priority 60

Since latest large flow: -2.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 6h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Vitality or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 19:45 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality.

•This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 1 match between Aurora Gaming and Vitality in the ESL Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 10, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Vitality. This market will resolve to "Vitality" if Vitality win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 24, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 10, 2026 at 9:45 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
fantasy77882 linked markets · $48.5K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $37.9K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $35.7K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 24.0¢41m ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Aurora Gaming@ 24.0¢8h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Aurora Gaming; negative values favor Vitality. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hVitality · $107.4K
6hVitality · $156.8K
24hVitality · $121.3K

Aurora Gaming price VWAP

Volume-weighted Aurora Gaming price. Vitality fills are converted to the complementary Aurora Gaming probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current21.5¢
VWAP 24h23.6¢▼ below by 2.1pp
VWAP 7d23.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Aurora Gaming price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$18.5K
20¢
← now
$329.5K
15¢
$8.5K
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 20¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAurora Gaming$18.5K@ 25.4¢
fantasy77880x0259…769e
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYVitality$30.0K@ 76.7¢0xf559…f462🐋—16 minutes ago
BUYVitality$32.6K@ 76.4¢0x9e3e…f882🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYVitality$13.3K@ 76.0¢
vilkaZ0x5f38…eb70
🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYAurora Gaming$11.5K@ 24.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—26 minutes ago
BUYVitality$13.2K@ 77.0¢
meoooow0xd202…8973
🐋—31 minutes ago
BUYAurora Gaming$15.0K@ 24.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYVitality$10.3K@ 76.0¢
arbbro0xcc42…6bd4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$12.1K@ 24.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$13.3K@ 77.0¢0xeaa2…670e🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYVitality$10.0K@ 77.0¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAurora Gaming$40.7K@ 24.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 8 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
61.5¢$172.8Kpriority55Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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26.5¢$15.7Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111Aurora Gaming$54.3K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·3 fills
0x9e3e…f882Vitality$35.6K
BUY VWAP 76.4¢·3 fills
0xf559…f462Vitality$30.0K
BUY VWAP 76.7¢·1 fill
CORGI8Aurora Gaming$19.0K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·2 fills
fantasy7788Aurora Gaming$18.5K
BUY VWAP 25.4¢·1 fill
vilkaZVitality$13.3K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill
0xeaa2…670eVitality$13.3K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
meoooowVitality$13.2K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·1 fill
sifonmanVitality$11.7K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cAurora Gaming$11.5K
BUY VWAP 24.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.