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M25 Sharm ElSheikh: Keshav Chopra vs Aristarkh Safonov

● quote 19 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $24.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $106.3KEvent: M25 Sharm ElSheikh: Keshav Chopra vs Aristarkh Safonov
0.4¢
Keshav Chopra
99.7¢
NO
0.5¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution81Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 53%
24h sample:4 trades$12.5K trackedsource coverage 12%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 274 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKeshav Chopra$4.3K@ 56¢·0xe911…3d4e

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$12.5K
tracked
$12.5K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
0.5¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 53% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Only 4 tracked trades / 1 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Executable quote is 19 minutes old.
  • •Observed tape is 274 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-30 10:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Keshav Chopra and Aristarkh Safonov in the M25 Sharm ElSheikh, Main Draw, originally scheduled for September 23, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Keshav Chopra' if Keshav Chopra advances against Aristarkh Safonov. This market will resolve to 'Aristarkh Safonov' if Aristarkh Safonov advances against Keshav Chopra. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Keshav Chopra; negative values favor NO. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKeshav Chopra · $0
6hKeshav Chopra · $12.5K
24hKeshav Chopra · $12.5K

Keshav Chopra price VWAP

Volume-weighted Keshav Chopra price. NO fills are converted to the complementary Keshav Chopra probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.4¢
VWAP 24h53.5¢▼ below by 53.2pp
VWAP 7d53.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Keshav Chopra price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$11.4K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$1.1K
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe911…3d4eKeshav Chopra$12.5K
BUY VWAP 51.5¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.