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Spread: Cowboys (-8.5)

● quote 13s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 16 hoursLiquidity: $559.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $7.4KEvent: Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
47.5¢
Cowboys
52.5¢
Buccaneers
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:3 trades$18.1K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 60 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBuccaneers$18.0K@ 53¢·ArielFilipino

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$2
6h
−$18.0K
tracked
$18.1K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 60 minutes old.
  • •Less than 16h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 00:15 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nfl.com/scores
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 9 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NFL football game between Buccaneers and Cowboys, scheduled for October 8 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Cowboys" if the Cowboys win the game by 9 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Buccaneers". Overtime is included if played. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
maz262 linked markets · $23.0K gross
HomeRunHazard2 linked markets · $11.6K gross
Herdonia2 linked markets · $7.3K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Cowboys; negative values favor Buccaneers. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBuccaneers · $2
6hBuccaneers · $18.0K
24hBuccaneers · $18.0K

Cowboys price VWAP

Volume-weighted Cowboys price. Buccaneers fills are converted to the complementary Cowboys probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current47.5¢
VWAP 24h47.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d47.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Cowboys price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$19.3K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBuccaneers$18.0K@ 53.0¢
ArielFilipino0xe18e…f826
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ArielFilipinoBuccaneers$18.0K
BUY VWAP 53.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.