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Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia

● quote 1 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $43.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $248.9KEvent: Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs: South Africa vs Australia
0.1¢
South Africa
99.9¢
Australia
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection13Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets88Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:73 trades$74.3K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 30%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Australia · $16.3K net·3 wallets·$18.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAustralia$11.4K@ 100¢·rogerveer

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

South Africa pressure: $10.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$10.0K
6h
+$23.4K
tracked
$74.3K

3 verified profitable wallets: Australia · $16.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 82% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from South Africa or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.espncricinfo.com/
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the cricket match between South Africa and Australia scheduled for September 30 2026 at 7:30 AM ET in Australia Tour of South Africa ODIs. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed/rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Australia@ 82.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -11.0pp
Latest book event: South Africa DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $14 → $2.6K · 34s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor South Africa; negative values favor Australia. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSouth Africa · $10.0K
6hSouth Africa · $23.4K
24hSouth Africa · $6.6K

South Africa price VWAP

Volume-weighted South Africa price. Australia fills are converted to the complementary South Africa probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.1¢
VWAP 24h18.4¢▼ below by 18.3pp
VWAP 7d18.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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South Africa price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$3.0K
40¢
$6.6K
35¢
$30
30¢
$15.0K
25¢
$1.3K
20¢
$5.2K
15¢
$14.2K
10¢
$10
5¢
$4.6K
0¢
← now
$24.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAustralia$10.0K@ 99.9¢
madkkee0xd27c…c081
🐋—7 minutes ago
SELLAustralia$11.4K@ 99.9¢
rogerveer0x4a3e…2694
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.