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Valorant: Karmine Corp vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $42.4KOfficial 24h Vol: $508.0KEvent: Valorant: Karmine Corp vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D
67.5¢
Karmine Corp
32.5¢
NRG
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets65Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:146 trades$199.2K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 38%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Karmine Corp · $63.5K net·7 wallets(2🐋)·$97.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYKarmine Corp$25.0K@ 45¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$27
6h
+$17.4K
tracked
$199.2K

7 verified profitable wallets: Karmine Corp · $63.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +8.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 8.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-29 18:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against NRG.

•This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the match against Karmine Corp.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Karmine Corp and NRG in the VCT Champions Group D, initially scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against NRG. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 13, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 29, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $66.8K gross
0x9e3e…f8822 linked markets · $5.9K gross
minji2 linked markets · $3.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Karmine Corp@ 60.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Karmine Corp46m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY NRG@ 55.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h INVALIDATED -24.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Karmine Corp@ 46.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp
Latest book event: NRG DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $1.1K → $454 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Karmine Corp; negative values favor NRG. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNRG · $27
6hKarmine Corp · $17.4K
24hKarmine Corp · $23.1K

Karmine Corp price VWAP

Volume-weighted Karmine Corp price. NRG fills are converted to the complementary Karmine Corp probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current67.5¢
VWAP 24h45.4¢▲ above by 22.1pp
VWAP 7d45.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Karmine Corp price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
← now
$8.7K
60¢
$4.7K
55¢
$1.8K
50¢
$4.0K
45¢
$101.3K
40¢
$78.8K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYKarmine Corp$25.0K@ 45.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNRG$14.3K@ 56.0¢
levaluv0x3ce8…3cd9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKarmine Corp$19.1K@ 45.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYKarmine Corp$12.7K@ 44.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x076d…8d4cKarmine Corp$55.0K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·15 fills
levaluvNRG$27.2K
BUY VWAP 55.8¢·8 fills
0x2c33…0563Karmine Corp$25.0K
BUY VWAP 45.0¢·1 fill
yishiwuchengNRG$16.8K
BUY VWAP 55.5¢·6 fills
qiu3NRG$11.3K
BUY VWAP 55.0¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.