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Chengdu Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

● quote 5 min ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $1.2MOfficial 24h Vol: $608.8KEvent: Chengdu Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
1.0¢
Hubert Hurkacz
99.9¢
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection38Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 11 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:163 trades$283.7K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 19 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · $36.2K net·11 wallets(1🐋)·$54.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$66.2K@ 100¢·kkookkoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Hubert Hurkacz pressure: $107.1K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$107.1K
6h
+$21.8K
tracked
$283.7K

11 verified profitable wallets: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina · $36.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +27.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 19 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 27.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Hubert Hurkacz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Chengdu Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hubert Hurkacz' if Hubert Hurkacz advances against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. This market will resolve to 'Alejandro Davidovich Fokina' if Alejandro Davidovich Fokina advances against Hubert Hurkacz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina@ 73.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -4.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina2h ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina@ 51.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +24.0pp1h CONFIRMED +17.0pp
Latest book event: Hubert Hurkacz DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $40 → $1.8K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Hubert Hurkacz; negative values favor Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHubert Hurkacz · $107.1K
6hHubert Hurkacz · $21.8K
24hHubert Hurkacz · $21.8K

Hubert Hurkacz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Hubert Hurkacz price. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina fills are converted to the complementary Hubert Hurkacz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current1.0¢
VWAP 24h24.6¢▼ below by 23.6pp
VWAP 7d24.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Hubert Hurkacz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$719
55¢
$28.7K
50¢
$29.0K
45¢
$5.4K
40¢
$27
35¢
$4
30¢
$84.4K
25¢
$25.7K
20¢
$5.0K
15¢
$1.5K
10¢
$76
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$103.2K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$66.2K@ 99.9¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—33 minutes ago
SELLAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$17.8K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—34 minutes ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$15.9K@ 69.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$12.4K@ 66.7¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$13.4K@ 66.6¢
Gambler6610x4419…fcf4
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$15.0K@ 70.0¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$21.7K@ 49.5¢
kkookkoo0x26b4…b8a9
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kkookkooAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$36.7K
BUY VWAP 56.2¢·2 fills
Gambler661Alejandro Davidovich Fokina$25.8K
BUY VWAP 66.7¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$18.6K
BUY VWAP 63.3¢·9 fills
FlaznorpAlejandro Davidovich Fokina$16.0K
BUY VWAP 69.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.