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Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 16s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $82.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $967.5KEvent: Hangzhou Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev
100.0¢
Daniil Medvedev
0.1¢
Andrey Rublev
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection12Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets79Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 94%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:151 trades$553.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 76%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 44s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daniil Medvedev · $88.5K net·12 wallets(1🐋)·$115.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaniil Medvedev$93.7K@ 100¢·watcherz88

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Daniil Medvedev pressure: $63.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$63.2K
6h
+$244.8K
tracked
$553.1K

12 verified profitable wallets: Daniil Medvedev · $88.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 94% · priority 0

Since latest accumulation: +7.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daniil Medvedev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 11:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev in the Hangzhou Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Daniil Medvedev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 93.0¢32m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.3pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 93.0¢32m ago
15m CONFIRMED +5.3pp
MARKET SWEEPBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 95.0¢44m ago
15m STALLED +1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 70.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp1h CONFIRMED +22.0pp
Latest book event: Andrey Rublev DOWN 3.0pp · near-book depth $7.0K → $1.3K · 8s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daniil Medvedev; negative values favor Andrey Rublev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaniil Medvedev · $63.2K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $244.8K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $267.5K

Daniil Medvedev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daniil Medvedev price. Andrey Rublev fills are converted to the complementary Daniil Medvedev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h84.5¢▲ above by 15.5pp
VWAP 7d84.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daniil Medvedev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$282.3K
90¢
$27.5K
85¢
$14.3K
80¢
$953
75¢
$1.1K
70¢
$5.0K
65¢
$199.5K
60¢
$22.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaniil Medvedev$20.6K@ 99.9¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—13 minutes ago
SELLDaniil Medvedev$93.7K@ 99.9¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—13 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$19.2K@ 96.0¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$47.5K@ 96.0¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—32 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$12.5K@ 95.0¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—33 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$28.2K@ 95.0¢
watcherz880xc5a2…6dd9
🐋—35 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$20.6K@ 68.0¢0xcfe8…3a6c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.2K@ 68.0¢0xcfe8…3a6c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.2K@ 67.9¢0xcfe8…3a6c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$40.6K@ 67.3¢0xcfe8…3a6c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$32.8K@ 68.0¢0xcfe8…3a6c🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$10.6K@ 64.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 9 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xcfe8…3a6cDaniil Medvedev$150.6K
BUY VWAP 67.8¢·6 fills
watcherz88Daniil Medvedev$109.1K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·5 fills
UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$41.9K
BUY VWAP 92.5¢·13 fills
FlaznorpDaniil Medvedev$21.9K
BUY VWAP 92.8¢·5 fills
dmoralezDaniil Medvedev$15.2K
BUY VWAP 90.1¢·10 fills
ferrariChampions2026Daniil Medvedev$10.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.