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Heat vs. Raptors

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 22 minutesLiquidity: $28.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $166.6KEvent: Heat vs. Raptors
57.0¢
Heat
43.0¢
Raptors
4.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection4Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets19Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution79Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority45Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 82%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:55 trades$47.4K trackedsource coverage 28%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Raptors · $488 net·3 wallets·$2.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYRaptors$8.7K@ 59¢·wanzzz333

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Heat pressure: $1.9K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$1.9K
6h
−$5.7K
tracked
$47.4K

3 verified profitable wallets: Raptors · $488 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 82% · priority 45

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Spread is 4.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Heat or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-03 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.nba.com/
Outcome meaning

•If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat".

•If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for October 3 at 7:00PM ET: If the Heat win, the market will resolve to "Heat". If the Raptors win, the market will resolve to "Raptors". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Raptors DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $349 → $414 · 71s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
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Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Heat; negative values favor Raptors. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHeat · $1.9K
6hRaptors · $5.7K
24hRaptors · $18.3K

Heat price VWAP

Volume-weighted Heat price. Raptors fills are converted to the complementary Heat probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current57.0¢
VWAP 24h42.3¢▲ above by 14.7pp
VWAP 7d42.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Heat price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
← now
$10
50¢
$2.2K
45¢
$5.5K
40¢
$32.0K
35¢
$7.7K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
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🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.