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Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $47.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $406.0KEvent: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
94.5¢
Team Yandex
5.5¢
Natus Vincere
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection75Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets66Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution78Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority78Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:151 trades$221.7K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 53%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Yandex · $42.2K net·18 wallets(1🐋)·$63.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Yandex$15.3K@ 76¢·0xf3ce…a57a

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Team Yandex pressure: $162.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$162.0K
6h
+$164.4K
tracked
$221.7K

18 verified profitable wallets: Team Yandex · $42.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 78

Since latest large flow: +20.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 20.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Yandex or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 18:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win Game 3 against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 3 against Team Yandex.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Team Yandex and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win Game 3 against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win Game 3 against Team Yandex. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 3 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 3. If Game 3 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ribalka3 linked markets · $70.5K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $59.8K gross
Sunshine.Smile3 linked markets · $42.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Team Yandex2m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Team Yandex2m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 75.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 75.0¢14m ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: Team Yandex UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $406 → $20.3K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Yandex; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Yandex · $162.0K
6hTeam Yandex · $164.4K
24hTeam Yandex · $164.4K

Team Yandex price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Yandex price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Yandex probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current94.5¢
VWAP 24h77.1¢▲ above by 17.4pp
VWAP 7d77.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Yandex price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$5.5K
85¢
$0
80¢
$15.1K
75¢
$195.3K
70¢
$5.7K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 75¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Yandex$15.3K@ 76.4¢0xf3ce…a57a🐋—19 minutes ago
BUYTeam Yandex$12.6K@ 78.0¢0xf201…527e🐋—24 minutes ago
BUYTeam Yandex$12.4K@ 76.0¢
ribalka0xe59f…0d08
🐋—25 minutes ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xf201…527eTeam Yandex$37.9K
BUY VWAP 78.2¢·6 fills
Sunshine.SmileTeam Yandex$19.7K
BUY VWAP 76.3¢·4 fills
0xf3ce…a57aTeam Yandex$15.3K
BUY VWAP 76.4¢·1 fill
ribalkaTeam Yandex$12.4K
BUY VWAP 76.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.