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Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $14.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $290.0KEvent: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
97.5¢
Team Yandex
2.5¢
Natus Vincere
0.9¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection3Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets94Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution75Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:108 trades$121.3K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 6 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Yandex · $6.2K net·7 wallets·$6.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYTeam Yandex$34.6K@ 88¢·Sodoo

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Team Yandex pressure: $3.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$3.0K
6h
+$92.0K
tracked
$121.3K

7 verified profitable wallets: Team Yandex · $6.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.9¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +9.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 9.9pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Team Yandex or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 18:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Natus Vincere.

•This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Yandex.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Team Yandex and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Team Yandex. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ribalka3 linked markets · $69.4K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $52.5K gross
Sunshine.Smile3 linked markets · $42.1K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 88.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Team Yandex@ 88.0¢3h ago
15m INVALIDATED -3.0pp1h CONFIRMED +5.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Yandex; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Yandex · $3.0K
6hTeam Yandex · $92.0K
24hTeam Yandex · $92.0K

Team Yandex price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Yandex price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Yandex probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current97.5¢
VWAP 24h88.1¢▲ above by 9.3pp
VWAP 7d88.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Yandex price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$13.6K
90¢
$2.5K
85¢
$102.2K
80¢
$3.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYTeam Yandex$10.0K@ 87.0¢
maxiforza0x018c…9794
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYTeam Yandex$34.6K@ 88.0¢
Sodoo0x0d7c…b7db
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Yandex$20.0K@ 87.0¢
tony19190x733b…7260
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYTeam Yandex$10.0K@ 86.0¢
maxiforza0x018c…9794
🐋—about 3 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner
100.0¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
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78.5¢$97.0Kpriority91Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)
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Spread: Bills (-7.5)
47.5¢$1.3Mpriority51Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: Lions (-6.5)
52.5¢$1.2Mpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
50.5¢$773.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

SodooTeam Yandex$34.6K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill
maxiforzaTeam Yandex$20.0K
BUY VWAP 86.5¢·2 fills
tony1919Team Yandex$20.0K
BUY VWAP 87.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.