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Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5)

● quote 23s ago
Sports→Closes: about 3 hoursLiquidity: $32.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $91.4KEvent: Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
87.5¢
Team Yandex
12.5¢
Natus Vincere
15.0¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution17Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 73%💡 3 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:38 trades$28.5K trackedsource coverage 31%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Team Yandex · $0 net·3 wallets·$96 gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNatus Vincere$7.3K@ 60¢·Uniform123

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$35
6h
−$12.5K
tracked
$28.5K

3 verified profitable wallets: Team Yandex · $0 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
15.0¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 73% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 15.0¢ before size-dependent slippage.
  • •Less than 3h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-09-27 18:55 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.dotabuff.com
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex wins 3 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Dota 2 Grand Final match between Team Yandex and Natus Vincere in the PGL Wallachia Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Yandex" if Team Yandex wins 3 or more games than Natus Vincere in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Natus Vincere". Games won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 11, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 27, 2026 at 8:45 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching game being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
ribalka3 linked markets · $70.5K gross
0xf201…527e2 linked markets · $59.8K gross
darkmarketmaker4 linked markets · $45.8K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Natus Vincere UP 5.5pp · near-book depth $11 → $11 · 62s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Team Yandex; negative values favor Natus Vincere. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hTeam Yandex · $35
6hNatus Vincere · $12.5K
24hNatus Vincere · $12.5K

Team Yandex price VWAP

Volume-weighted Team Yandex price. Natus Vincere fills are converted to the complementary Team Yandex probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current87.5¢
VWAP 24h40.6¢▲ above by 46.9pp
VWAP 7d40.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Team Yandex price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
← now
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$51
65¢
$0
60¢
$38
55¢
$19
50¢
$114
45¢
$5.1K
40¢
$12.0K
35¢
$11.2K
30¢
$5
25¢
$6
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.