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Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $253.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $272.5KEvent: Valorant: T1 vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A
3.0¢
T1
99.9¢
JD Gaming
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly7Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets97Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 76%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:67 trades$117.5K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 43%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 56s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:JD Gaming · $38.3K net·7 wallets(1🐋)·$39.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYT1$32.8K@ 62¢·Lakersfan111

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$237
6h
+$33.4K
tracked
$117.5K

7 verified profitable wallets: JD Gaming · $38.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 76% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -49.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Less than 4h remains; resolution risk is elevated.
  • •Rules, deadline or market status changed recently; re-read the current definition.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-02 17:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://vlr.gg
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 wins 2 or more maps than JD Gaming in this match.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming".

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Valorant Elimination match between T1 and JD Gaming in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for October 2, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "T1" if T1 wins 2 or more maps than JD Gaming in this match. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "JD Gaming". Maps won by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default are counted towards the handicap, provided that the match is completed. If the match is canceled (not played at all for any reason) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 16, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 2, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's match forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match ends due to the clinching map being forfeited this will count as a completed match. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
DEADLINE CHANGED · 2h ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
Lakersfan1112 linked markets · $98.6K gross
0x076d…8d4c2 linked markets · $44.0K gross
NrNrfNrf22 linked markets · $20.5K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY T12h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY T1@ 50.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +20.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY T1@ 55.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED +0.0pp1h CONFIRMED +14.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY JD Gaming2h ago
Outcome checks pending
Latest book event: JD Gaming DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $179 → $219 · 27s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor T1; negative values favor JD Gaming. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hT1 · $237
6hT1 · $33.4K
24hT1 · $33.4K

T1 price VWAP

Volume-weighted T1 price. JD Gaming fills are converted to the complementary T1 probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current3.0¢
VWAP 24h61.5¢▼ below by 58.5pp
VWAP 7d61.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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T1 price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$40
70¢
$2
65¢
$0
60¢
$116.8K
55¢
$5
50¢
$5
45¢
$501
40¢
$90
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$13
15¢
$0
10¢
$12
5¢
$0
0¢
← now
$100

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYT1$32.8K@ 62.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming$13.0K@ 38.7¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJD Gaming$17.7K@ 38.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYT1$13.6K@ 62.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111T1$53.0K
BUY VWAP 61.9¢·3 fills
0x076d…8d4cJD Gaming$30.6K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.