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Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29?

Crypto→Settlement: DownLiquidity: $135.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $249.6KEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on September 29?
0.0¢
Up payout
100.0¢
Down payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:174 trades$66.0K trackedsource coverage 29%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 82 min agoofficial metadata 58 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Down · $9.3K net·4 wallets·$28.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDown$4.5K@ 90¢·easyclap

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Down. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-09-29 16:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 29 '26 12:00 ET candle.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 29 '26 12:00 ET candle.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 28 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 29 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Down@ 96.0¢1h ago
15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE
Latest book event: Down UP 4.0pp · near-book depth $8.2K → $17.1K · 6s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDown · $50.2K
6hDown · $47.5K
24hDown · $39.6K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h30.6¢▼ below by 30.6pp
VWAP 7d30.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$1.4K
90¢
$3.8K
85¢
$1.5K
80¢
$445
75¢
$1.7K
70¢
$1.0K
65¢
$0
60¢
$2.6K
55¢
$15
50¢
$162
45¢
$345
40¢
$1.1K
35¢
$1.2K
30¢
$5.8K
25¢
$4.6K
20¢
$14.8K
15¢
$17.2K
10¢
$8.8K
5¢
$4.6K
0¢
← now
$78

VPOC = 15¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x06dc…4524Down$35.2K
BUY VWAP 77.4¢·21 fills
gobblewobbleDown$13.5K
BUY VWAP 82.0¢·8 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.