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China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $139.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $370.8KEvent: China Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Han Shi
94.5¢
Elvina Kalieva
5.5¢
Han Shi
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection30Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets74Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority70Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 7 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:107 trades$178.6K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 45%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elvina Kalieva · $60.9K net·7 wallets·$79.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYHan Shi$25.5K@ 57¢·raybanman

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Han Shi pressure: $50.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$50.0K
6h
−$48.1K
tracked
$178.6K

7 verified profitable wallets: Elvina Kalieva · $60.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 70

Since latest market sweep: +46.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 46.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Han Shi or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Elvina Kalieva and Han Shi in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elvina Kalieva' if Elvina Kalieva advances against Han Shi. This market will resolve to 'Han Shi' if Han Shi advances against Elvina Kalieva. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Elvina Kalieva42m ago
Outcome checks pending
MARKET SWEEPBUY Elvina Kalieva@ 49.0¢45m ago
15m CONFIRMED +17.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Han Shi@ 61.0¢54m ago
15m INVALIDATED -34.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Han Shi@ 59.0¢54m ago
15m INVALIDATED -32.0pp
Latest book event: Elvina Kalieva UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $58.1K → $29.7K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Elvina Kalieva; negative values favor Han Shi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hHan Shi · $50.0K
6hHan Shi · $48.1K
24hHan Shi · $35.8K

Elvina Kalieva price VWAP

Volume-weighted Elvina Kalieva price. Han Shi fills are converted to the complementary Elvina Kalieva probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current94.5¢
VWAP 24h50.4¢▲ above by 44.1pp
VWAP 7d50.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Elvina Kalieva price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$11.7K
90¢
← now
$0
85¢
$300
80¢
$3.7K
75¢
$262
70¢
$2.8K
65¢
$2.7K
60¢
$10.5K
55¢
$34.0K
50¢
$23.8K
45¢
$9.8K
40¢
$79.0K
35¢
$11
30¢
$3
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYHan Shi$16.3K@ 56.7¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHan Shi$22.0K@ 56.6¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYHan Shi$25.5K@ 56.6¢
raybanman0xcbc6…ec62
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

raybanmanHan Shi$88.8K
BUY VWAP 55.2¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesElvina Kalieva$28.2K
BUY VWAP 69.8¢·18 fills
ferrariChampions2026Elvina Kalieva$24.6K
BUY VWAP 53.1¢·6 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.