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China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai

● quote 26s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $93.9KOfficial 24h Vol: $418.2KEvent: China Open, Qualification: Jiaqi Wang vs Zhuoxuan Bai
45.0¢
Jiaqi Wang
55.0¢
Zhuoxuan Bai
4.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection2Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets98Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution63Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 79%💡 4 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:70 trades$232.8K tracked7% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 15 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Zhuoxuan Bai · $117.7K net·4 wallets(2🐋)·$120.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYZhuoxuan Bai$39.6K@ 99¢·ezMerge

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Zhuoxuan Bai pressure: $5.2K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$5.2K
6h
−$213.5K
tracked
$232.8K

4 verified profitable wallets: Zhuoxuan Bai · $117.7K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
4.8¢displayed spread

Expensive before size: wait for tighter quotes or reduce size.

Data confidence 79% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: -18.5pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 15 minutes old.
  • •Spread is 4.8¢ before size-dependent slippage.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Zhuoxuan Bai or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-06 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Jiaqi Wang and Zhuoxuan Bai in the China Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jiaqi Wang' if Jiaqi Wang advances against Zhuoxuan Bai. This market will resolve to 'Zhuoxuan Bai' if Zhuoxuan Bai advances against Jiaqi Wang. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Zhuoxuan Bai@ 75.9¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -14.8pp1h INVALIDATED -22.9pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Zhuoxuan Bai2h ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Zhuoxuan Bai@ 60.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -0.8pp1h INVALIDATED -3.9pp
Latest book event: Zhuoxuan Bai DOWN 6.3pp · near-book depth $4 → $3.6K · 30s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jiaqi Wang; negative values favor Zhuoxuan Bai. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hZhuoxuan Bai · $5.2K
6hZhuoxuan Bai · $213.5K
24hZhuoxuan Bai · $213.5K

Jiaqi Wang price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jiaqi Wang price. Zhuoxuan Bai fills are converted to the complementary Jiaqi Wang probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current45.0¢
VWAP 24h10.2¢▲ above by 34.8pp
VWAP 7d10.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jiaqi Wang price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$6
50¢
$0
45¢
← now
$727
40¢
$8.4K
35¢
$6.8K
30¢
$5.2K
25¢
$15.4K
20¢
$21.9K
15¢
$12.2K
10¢
$9.2K
5¢
$48.7K
0¢
$104.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYZhuoxuan Bai$10.5K@ 80.2¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYZhuoxuan Bai$39.6K@ 98.8¢
ezMerge0x4638…6b0a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYZhuoxuan Bai$14.8K@ 99.0¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYZhuoxuan Bai$22.2K@ 95.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 3 hours ago
BUYZhuoxuan Bai$12.3K@ 95.0¢
Flaznorp0x821d…cf16
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FlaznorpZhuoxuan Bai$53.3K
BUY VWAP 95.6¢·7 fills
0x1610…ae49Zhuoxuan Bai$41.2K
BUY VWAP 78.0¢·10 fills
ezMergeZhuoxuan Bai$39.6K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·1 fill
hd777Zhuoxuan Bai$32.5K
BUY VWAP 99.0¢·4 fills
0x6581…f4ddZhuoxuan Bai$15.5K
BUY VWAP 85.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.