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China Open: Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina

● quote 19s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $686.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $585.9KEvent: China Open: Paula Badosa vs Daria Kasatkina
99.9¢
Paula Badosa
9.0¢
Daria Kasatkina
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection15Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets9Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:220 trades$203.8K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 37%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daria Kasatkina · $8.6K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$99.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaria Kasatkina$14.8K@ 80¢·0x1610…ae49

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Daria Kasatkina pressure: $30.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$30.5K
6h
−$20.0K
tracked
$203.8K

13 verified profitable wallets: Daria Kasatkina · $8.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Daria Kasatkina or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Paula Badosa' if Paula Badosa advances against Daria Kasatkina. This market will resolve to 'Daria Kasatkina' if Daria Kasatkina advances against Paula Badosa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Paula Badosa DOWN 5.0pp · near-book depth $5.4K → $1.8K · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Paula Badosa; negative values favor Daria Kasatkina. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hDaria Kasatkina · $30.5K
6hDaria Kasatkina · $20.0K
24hDaria Kasatkina · $21.0K

Paula Badosa price VWAP

Volume-weighted Paula Badosa price. Daria Kasatkina fills are converted to the complementary Paula Badosa probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current99.9¢
VWAP 24h58.3¢▲ above by 41.6pp
VWAP 7d58.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Paula Badosa price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$26.8K
90¢
$8.3K
85¢
$7.6K
80¢
$12.3K
75¢
$327
70¢
$1.4K
65¢
$15.9K
60¢
$11.5K
55¢
$6.8K
50¢
$22.2K
45¢
$23.1K
40¢
$21.6K
35¢
$14.7K
30¢
$7.8K
25¢
$4.1K
20¢
$19.4K
15¢
$25
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLPaula Badosa$14.4K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—29 minutes ago
BUYDaria Kasatkina$14.8K@ 80.0¢0x1610…ae49🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x1610…ae49Daria Kasatkina$34.9K
BUY VWAP 45.9¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesPaula Badosa$32.6K
BUY VWAP 56.1¢·21 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.