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China Open: Mayar Sherif vs Polina Kudermetova

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $73.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.5KEvent: China Open: Mayar Sherif vs Polina Kudermetova
49.5¢
Mayar Sherif
50.5¢
Polina Kudermetova
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution89Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 59%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:31 trades$25.8K trackedsource coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 89 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYPolina Kudermetova$5.5K@ 64¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$11.8K
tracked
$25.8K

1 verified profitable wallet: Polina Kudermetova · $5.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 59% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 89 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Mayar Sherif and Polina Kudermetova in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mayar Sherif' if Mayar Sherif advances against Polina Kudermetova. This market will resolve to 'Polina Kudermetova' if Polina Kudermetova advances against Mayar Sherif. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Mayar Sherif; negative values favor Polina Kudermetova. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMayar Sherif · $0
6hMayar Sherif · $11.8K
24hPolina Kudermetova · $162

Mayar Sherif price VWAP

Volume-weighted Mayar Sherif price. Polina Kudermetova fills are converted to the complementary Mayar Sherif probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current49.5¢
VWAP 24h36.6¢▲ above by 12.9pp
VWAP 7d36.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Mayar Sherif price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$139
45¢
← now
$1.0K
40¢
$0
35¢
$19.2K
30¢
$5.5K
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

No observed $10K+ whale buys

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.