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China Open: Daria Snigur vs Katarzyna Kawa

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $945.5KOfficial 24h Vol: $486.1KEvent: China Open: Daria Snigur vs Katarzyna Kawa
100.0¢
Daria Snigur
0.1¢
Katarzyna Kawa
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection27Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets1Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 16 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:246 trades$167.9K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 42%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Daria Snigur · $824 net·16 wallets·$58.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:SELLDaria Snigur$38.8K@ 100¢·Kkunn

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Katarzyna Kawa pressure: $45.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$45.7K
6h
−$51.1K
tracked
$167.9K

16 verified profitable wallets: Daria Snigur · $824 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Katarzyna Kawa or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 04:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Daria Snigur and Katarzyna Kawa in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 12:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daria Snigur' if Daria Snigur advances against Katarzyna Kawa. This market will resolve to 'Katarzyna Kawa' if Katarzyna Kawa advances against Daria Snigur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Katarzyna Kawa DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $65 → $4 · 1s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Daria Snigur; negative values favor Katarzyna Kawa. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hKatarzyna Kawa · $45.7K
6hKatarzyna Kawa · $51.1K
24hKatarzyna Kawa · $51.1K

Daria Snigur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Daria Snigur price. Katarzyna Kawa fills are converted to the complementary Daria Snigur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h68.0¢▲ above by 31.9pp
VWAP 7d68.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Daria Snigur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$57.4K
90¢
$2
85¢
$2.8K
80¢
$3.4K
75¢
$454
70¢
$1.8K
65¢
$8.8K
60¢
$4.1K
55¢
$23.1K
50¢
$9.4K
45¢
$18.5K
40¢
$7.1K
35¢
$27.3K
30¢
$1.3K
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$5
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
SELLDaria Snigur$38.8K@ 99.9¢
Kkunn0xe787…5034
🐋—18 minutes ago
BUYKatarzyna Kawa$10.0K@ 40.9¢
Kev690x1250…8f99
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

UpTheBluesKatarzyna Kawa$10.8K
BUY VWAP 60.6¢·13 fills
Kev69Katarzyna Kawa$10.0K
BUY VWAP 40.9¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.