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China Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $101.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $142.4KEvent: China Open: Alexander Zverev vs Cameron Norrie
100.0¢
Alexander Zverev
0.1¢
Cameron Norrie
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets100Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 74%💡 8 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:68 trades$49.1K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 12 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alexander Zverev · $6.6K net·8 wallets·$9.3K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlexander Zverev$20.8K@ 88¢·coinlaundry

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$518
6h
+$37.2K
tracked
$49.1K

8 verified profitable wallets: Alexander Zverev · $6.6K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 74% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +16.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 12 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 16.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-07 02:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alexander Zverev and Cameron Norrie in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 29, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexander Zverev' if Alexander Zverev advances against Cameron Norrie. This market will resolve to 'Cameron Norrie' if Cameron Norrie advances against Alexander Zverev. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Alexander Zverev@ 84.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +4.0pp1h CONFIRMED +11.6pp
Latest book event: Alexander Zverev DOWN 4.5pp · near-book depth $35.2K → $35.3K · 62s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alexander Zverev; negative values favor Cameron Norrie. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlexander Zverev · $518
6hAlexander Zverev · $37.2K
24hAlexander Zverev · $38.6K

Alexander Zverev price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alexander Zverev price. Cameron Norrie fills are converted to the complementary Alexander Zverev probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h90.2¢▲ above by 9.8pp
VWAP 7d90.1¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alexander Zverev price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$11.1K
90¢
$1.9K
85¢
$37.2K
80¢
$223
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAlexander Zverev$20.8K@ 88.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

coinlaundryAlexander Zverev$22.6K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.