PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Spread: Louisville (-3.5)

● quote 10s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 9 hoursLiquidity: $216.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $22Event: Florida State vs. Louisville
50.5¢
Louisville
49.5¢
Florida State
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets0Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%
24h sample:7 trades$24.9K tracked14% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 707 min agoofficial metadata 11 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYFlorida State$24.7K@ 51¢·0x4924…3782

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
$0
tracked
$24.9K

No verified profitable-wallet confirmation in the observed sample.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 707 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-09 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 9 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Louisville" if Louisville win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Florida State". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Louisville; negative values favor Florida State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLouisville · $0
6hLouisville · $0
24hFlorida State · $24.7K

Louisville price VWAP

Volume-weighted Louisville price. Florida State fills are converted to the complementary Louisville probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current50.5¢
VWAP 24h49.2¢▲ above by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d49.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Louisville price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
← now
$85
45¢
$24.8K
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 45¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYFlorida State$24.7K@ 50.8¢0x4924…3782🐋—about 12 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
39.0¢$1.9Mpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Yi Zhou vs Lorenzo Musetti
99.5¢$1.2Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$424.2Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Sinners (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs
100.0¢$339.3Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
41.5¢$338.4Kpriority52Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce - Map 2 Winner
0.1¢$331.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - VCT Champions Playoffs
60.5¢$322.5Kpriority67Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x4924…3782Florida State$24.7K
BUY VWAP 50.8¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.