PolyScope
ScreenerCategoriesEventsLarge TradesWallets🐋 Top Whales⚡ Early MoversSignalsSmart MoneyPortfolioWatchlist🔔 Alerts

Spread: North Dakota State (-3.5)

● quote 35s ago
Sports→American FootballCloses: about 5 hoursLiquidity: $103.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $49.3KEvent: North Dakota State vs. UNLV
42.5¢
North Dakota State
57.5¢
UNLV
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly26Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection1Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:3 trades$19.0K tracked33% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 13 min agoofficial metadata 9 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYNorth Dakota State$18.8K@ 42¢·0x2c33…0563

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$145
6h
−$145
tracked
$19.0K

1 verified profitable wallet: North Dakota State · $18.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 13 minutes old.
  • •Less than 5h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 23:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 4 or more points.

•Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV".

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game, scheduled for October 10 at 7:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Dakota State" if North Dakota State win the game by 4 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "UNLV". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY North Dakota State@ 43.0¢10h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp6h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor North Dakota State; negative values favor UNLV. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hUNLV · $145
6hUNLV · $145
24hNorth Dakota State · $18.7K

North Dakota State price VWAP

Volume-weighted North Dakota State price. UNLV fills are converted to the complementary North Dakota State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current42.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▲ above by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

North Dakota State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$19.0K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYNorth Dakota State$18.8K@ 42.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 10 hours ago

Related Markets · same event first, then category

Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Vitality (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
0.1¢$2.7Mpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
43.5¢$1.4Mpriority50Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)
30.5¢$592.9Kpriority64Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Shakhtar Donetsk win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
0.1¢$425.1Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)
0.1¢$377.9Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals?
4.5¢$344.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Coventry City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$307.6Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge
Will Nottingham Forest win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
0.1¢$305.8Kpriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edge

Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0x2c33…0563North Dakota State$18.8K
BUY VWAP 42.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.