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Boise State vs. Fresno State

Sports→American FootballSettlement: Boise StateLiquidity: $799.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.0MEvent: Boise State vs. Fresno State
100.0¢
Boise State payout
0.0¢
Fresno State payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:144 trades$566.4K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 56%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 508 min agoofficial metadata 491 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Boise State · $35.6K net·12 wallets(2🐋)·$94.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYBoise State$135.8K@ 89¢·1827575782

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Boise State. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ncaa.com/
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Boise State" if Boise State win the game.

•This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game.

Read full resolution rules

In the upcoming college football game between Boise State and Fresno State, scheduled for October 10 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Boise State" if Boise State win the game. This market will resolve to "Fresno State" if Fresno State win the game. Overtime is included if played. If the game ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.

Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
0x2c33…05632 linked markets · $68.0K gross
0xb4f9…c9a72 linked markets · $20.3K gross
mooseborzoii2 linked markets · $12.0K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: Boise State DOWN 3.9pp · near-book depth $30.2K → $11.8K · 40s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Boise State; negative values favor Fresno State. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hBoise State · $61.6K
6hBoise State · $457.7K
24hBoise State · $471.9K

Boise State price VWAP

Volume-weighted Boise State price. Fresno State fills are converted to the complementary Boise State probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h89.2¢▲ above by 10.8pp
VWAP 7d88.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Boise State price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$125.7K
90¢
$1.5K
85¢
$337.9K
80¢
$51.3K
75¢
$31.7K
70¢
$15.6K
65¢
$7.8K
60¢
$2.8K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 85¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYBoise State$64.1K@ 99.9¢
welcometowinnercircle0x88b2…e1d1
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYBoise State$38.2K@ 98.0¢
Hashbrown0xa52b…9480
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYBoise State$12.3K@ 97.5¢
neutralwave230x5b63…11a4
🐋—about 9 hours ago
BUYFresno State$11.0K@ 17.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 10 hours ago
BUYBoise State$11.2K@ 86.6¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$17.8K@ 81.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$16.8K@ 79.0¢0x2c33…0563🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$135.8K@ 89.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$86.3K@ 89.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$34.6K@ 88.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 11 hours ago
BUYBoise State$44.9K@ 88.0¢
18275757820x2798…0b7d
🐋—about 12 hours ago
BUYBoise State$13.2K@ 74.0¢
primm0xd38b…5029
🐋—about 17 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

1827575782Boise State$312.8K
BUY VWAP 88.7¢·5 fills
welcometowinnercircleBoise State$66.4K
BUY VWAP 99.9¢·3 fills
HashbrownBoise State$39.7K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·2 fills
0x2c33…0563Boise State$34.6K
BUY VWAP 80.0¢·3 fills
0x2c33…0563Fresno State$20.7K
BUY VWAP 14.8¢·2 fills
kkookkooBoise State$15.8K
BUY VWAP 83.3¢·3 fills
primmBoise State$13.2K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill
neutralwave23Boise State$12.3K
BUY VWAP 97.5¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.