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China Open: Alex Molcan vs Arthur Rinderknech

● quote 22s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $129.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $73.0KEvent: China Open: Alex Molcan vs Arthur Rinderknech
39.5¢
Alex Molcan
60.5¢
Arthur Rinderknech
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 65%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:4 trades$42.5K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 58%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 136 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYArthur Rinderknech$21.3K@ 62¢·Antblack

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
−$39.5K
tracked
$42.5K

1 verified profitable wallet: Alex Molcan · $1.5K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 65% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 136 minutes old.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-08 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex Molcan and Arthur Rinderknech in the China Open, originally scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex Molcan' if Alex Molcan advances against Arthur Rinderknech. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Rinderknech' if Arthur Rinderknech advances against Alex Molcan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Arthur Rinderknech@ 61.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex Molcan; negative values favor Arthur Rinderknech. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlex Molcan · $0
6hArthur Rinderknech · $39.5K
24hArthur Rinderknech · $39.5K

Alex Molcan price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex Molcan price. Arthur Rinderknech fills are converted to the complementary Alex Molcan probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current39.5¢
VWAP 24h38.4¢▲ above by 1.1pp
VWAP 7d38.4¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex Molcan price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$42.5K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYArthur Rinderknech$21.3K@ 62.0¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYArthur Rinderknech$18.7K@ 61.2¢
Antblack0x9c68…247a
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

AntblackArthur Rinderknech$40.0K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.