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Bari: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald

Sports→TennisSettlement: Matthew William DonaldLiquidity: $138.8KOfficial 24h Vol: $276.3KEvent: Bari: Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew William Donald
0.0¢
Lorenzo Giustino payout
100.0¢
Matthew William Donald payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Matthew William Donald · $25.3K net·5 wallets·$29.5K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatthew William Donald$15.5K@ 95¢·HVAB

Historical decision record

Market resolved · outcome Matthew William Donald. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-08 08:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Lorenzo Giustino and Matthew William Donald in the Bari, originally scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lorenzo Giustino' if Lorenzo Giustino advances against Matthew William Donald. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Lorenzo Giustino. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Recent definition/status changes
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 5d ago

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Lorenzo Giustino; negative values favor Matthew William Donald. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatthew William Donald · $57.5K
6hMatthew William Donald · $62.1K
24hMatthew William Donald · $62.1K

Lorenzo Giustino price VWAP

Volume-weighted Lorenzo Giustino price. Matthew William Donald fills are converted to the complementary Lorenzo Giustino probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current0.0¢
VWAP 24h8.9¢▼ below by 8.9pp
VWAP 7d8.9¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Lorenzo Giustino price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.1K
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$1.2K
55¢
$2.6K
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$1.9K
25¢
$5
20¢
$24
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$16.7K
0¢
← now
$45.3K

VPOC = 0¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMatthew William Donald$15.5K@ 95.4¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—6 days ago
BUYMatthew William Donald$10.9K@ 93.5¢
HVAB0x8546…35b8
🐋—6 days ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

HVABMatthew William Donald$35.4K
BUY VWAP 94.7¢·4 fills
0x076d…8d4cMatthew William Donald$24.3K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.