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Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner

Sports→Settlement: RESOLVEDLiquidity: $476.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $165.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs
44.5¢
fnatic payout
55.5¢
Alliance payout
Historical analytics · no executable quote
24h sample:70 trades$73.4K trackedsource coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 28 min agoofficial metadata 12 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Alliance · $15.2K net·4 wallets·$15.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAlliance$8.6K@ 54¢·lllllllIlll

Historical decision record

Market resolved. Flow, alerts and prices below are retained evidence, not an executable setup.

RESOLVED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
RESOLVED
Trading
Orders paused
Deadline
2026-10-03 19:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win Map 2 against Alliance.

•This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win Map 2 against fnatic.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between fnatic and Alliance in the Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win Map 2 against Alliance. This market will resolve to "Alliance" if Alliance win Map 2 against fnatic. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 17, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Recent definition/status changes
RESOLUTION STATUS CHANGED · 12m ago
TRADING STATUS CHANGED · 12m ago
Event-level hedge context · observed 7d flow
BrotherObama2 linked markets · $40.2K gross
aaaa2982 linked markets · $11.1K gross
lllllllIlll2 linked markets · $10.6K gross

Multi-market activity can be a hedge; do not read one leg as the wallet’s full thesis.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.
Latest book event: fnatic UP 3.0pp · near-book depth $7.8K → $673 · 9s

Outcome Price History

Execution status
Market resolved · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolved

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor fnatic; negative values favor Alliance. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAlliance · $13.5K
6hAlliance · $36.1K
24hAlliance · $36.1K

fnatic price VWAP

Volume-weighted fnatic price. Alliance fills are converted to the complementary fnatic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current44.5¢
VWAP 24h69.5¢▼ below by 25.0pp
VWAP 7d69.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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fnatic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$21.0K
90¢
$2.1K
85¢
$7.7K
80¢
$1.5K
75¢
$4.0K
70¢
$2
65¢
$144
60¢
$3.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$148
45¢
$12.7K
40¢
← now
$20.6K
35¢
$86
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Historical observed tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
No whale activity

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

BrotherObamaAlliance$12.0K
BUY VWAP 56.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.