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UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)

● quote 18s ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 14 hoursLiquidity: $45.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $4.0KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Jai Herbert vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card)
36.5¢
Jai Herbert
63.5¢
Matheus Camilo
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly0Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution83Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:11 trades$22.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 64 min agoofficial metadata 10 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYMatheus Camilo$15.3K@ 63¢·FeedTheBigBird

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
$0
6h
+$116
tracked
$22.6K

1 verified profitable wallet: Matheus Camilo · $4.8K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 64 minutes old.
  • •Less than 14h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Jai Herbert" if Jai Herbert is officially declared the winner of the fight against Matheus Camilo at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Matheus Camilo" if Matheus Camilo is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Jai Herbert" if Jai Herbert is officially declared the winner of the fight against Matheus Camilo at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Matheus Camilo" if Matheus Camilo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Jai Herbert; negative values favor Matheus Camilo. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hJai Herbert · $0
6hJai Herbert · $116
24hMatheus Camilo · $17.6K

Jai Herbert price VWAP

Volume-weighted Jai Herbert price. Matheus Camilo fills are converted to the complementary Jai Herbert probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current36.5¢
VWAP 24h36.8¢▼ below by 0.3pp
VWAP 7d36.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Jai Herbert price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
← now
$22.6K
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 35¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMatheus Camilo$15.3K@ 63.0¢
FeedTheBigBird0x84ec…72c1
🐋—about 24 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

FeedTheBigBirdMatheus Camilo$15.3K
BUY VWAP 63.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.