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UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan (Welterweight, Prelims)

● quote 2 min ago
Sports→Combat SportsCloses: about 11 hoursLiquidity: $100.3KOfficial 24h Vol: $3.1KEvent: UFC Fight Night: Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan (Welterweight, Prelims)
41.5¢
Niko Price
58.5¢
Leon Shahbazyan
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly1Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets33Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 90%💡 1 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:2 trades$28.9K tracked50% 🐋source coverage 100%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 16 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLeon Shahbazyan$28.9K@ 58¢·Talvez10

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$4
6h
−$28.9K
tracked
$28.9K

1 verified profitable wallet: Leon Shahbazyan · $28.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 90% · priority 0

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Only 2 tracked trades / 2 wallets in the 24h sample.
  • •Observed tape is 16 minutes old.
  • •Less than 11h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Niko Price" if Niko Price is officially declared the winner of the fight against Leon Shahbazyan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026.

•It will resolve to "Leon Shahbazyan" if Leon Shahbazyan is officially declared the winner.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Niko Price" if Niko Price is officially declared the winner of the fight against Leon Shahbazyan at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Leon Shahbazyan" if Leon Shahbazyan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

No decision-grade alert has been emitted for this market yet.

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Niko Price; negative values favor Leon Shahbazyan. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hLeon Shahbazyan · $4
6hLeon Shahbazyan · $28.9K
24hLeon Shahbazyan · $28.9K

Niko Price price VWAP

Volume-weighted Niko Price price. Leon Shahbazyan fills are converted to the complementary Niko Price probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.5¢
VWAP 24h42.0¢▼ below by 0.5pp
VWAP 7d42.0¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Niko Price price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
← now
$28.9K
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLeon Shahbazyan$28.9K@ 58.0¢
Talvez100xa710…23c4
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Talvez10Leon Shahbazyan$28.9K
BUY VWAP 58.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.