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Bari: Juan Martin vs Matthew William Donald

● quote 25s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $34.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $136.7KEvent: Bari: Juan Martin vs Matthew William Donald
100.0¢
Juan Martin
0.1¢
Matthew William Donald
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly5Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets99Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution87Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 6 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:20 trades$63.0K tracked10% 🐋source coverage 46%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 20 min agoofficial metadata 30s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Juan Martin · $4.9K net·6 wallets·$5.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYJuan Martin$27.9K@ 60¢·askilika

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
−$17
6h
+$58.6K
tracked
$63.0K

6 verified profitable wallets: Juan Martin · $4.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +46.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Observed tape is 20 minutes old.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 46.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-10 13:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Juan Martin and Matthew William Donald in the Bari, originally scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Juan Martin' if Juan Martin advances against Matthew William Donald. This market will resolve to 'Matthew William Donald' if Matthew William Donald advances against Juan Martin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Juan Martin1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Juan Martin@ 54.0¢2h ago
15m CONFIRMED +7.0pp1h CONFIRMED +30.0pp
Latest book event: Matthew William Donald DOWN 2.5pp · near-book depth $12.6K → $6.7K · 18s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Juan Martin; negative values favor Matthew William Donald. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hMatthew William Donald · $17
6hJuan Martin · $58.6K
24hJuan Martin · $58.6K

Juan Martin price VWAP

Volume-weighted Juan Martin price. Matthew William Donald fills are converted to the complementary Juan Martin probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h59.6¢▲ above by 40.4pp
VWAP 7d59.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Juan Martin price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$30
90¢
$7
85¢
$6
80¢
$49
75¢
$2.1K
70¢
$1.9K
65¢
$14
60¢
$3.6K
55¢
$53.8K
50¢
$1.4K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 55¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYJuan Martin$25.9K@ 56.7¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYJuan Martin$27.9K@ 59.9¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

askilikaJuan Martin$53.8K
BUY VWAP 58.3¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.