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China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev

● quote 11s ago
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $39.0KOfficial 24h Vol: $507.2KEvent: China Open: Alex de Minaur vs Andrey Rublev
74.5¢
Alex de Minaur
25.5¢
Andrey Rublev
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection34Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets15Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority54Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 85%💡 14 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:252 trades$190.4K tracked1% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 23 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Andrey Rublev · $10.1K net·14 wallets·$62.0K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYAndrey Rublev$13.3K@ 75¢·askilika

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Andrey Rublev pressure: $57.3K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$57.3K
6h
−$68.6K
tracked
$190.4K

14 verified profitable wallets: Andrey Rublev · $10.1K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 85% · priority 54

Since latest accumulation: -52.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 23 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Andrey Rublev or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-11 06:30 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Andrey Rublev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 2:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Andrey Rublev. This market will resolve to 'Andrey Rublev' if Andrey Rublev advances against Alex de Minaur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ACCUMULATIONBUY Andrey Rublev@ 78.0¢53m ago
15m INVALIDATED -29.0pp
ANTI CHASEBUY Andrey Rublev1h ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Andrey Rublev1h ago
Outcome checks pending
LARGE FLOWBUY Andrey Rublev@ 69.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +8.0pp1h INVALIDATED -21.0pp
Latest book event: Andrey Rublev UP 4.5pp · near-book depth $705 → $11.9K · 2s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Alex de Minaur; negative values favor Andrey Rublev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hAndrey Rublev · $57.3K
6hAndrey Rublev · $68.6K
24hAndrey Rublev · $71.4K

Alex de Minaur price VWAP

Volume-weighted Alex de Minaur price. Andrey Rublev fills are converted to the complementary Alex de Minaur probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current74.5¢
VWAP 24h36.3¢▲ above by 38.2pp
VWAP 7d36.3¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Alex de Minaur price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$4.6K
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$8.0K
50¢
$42.0K
45¢
$6.0K
40¢
$12.7K
35¢
$4.5K
30¢
$62.0K
25¢
$44.9K
20¢
$4.0K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 30¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYAndrey Rublev$13.3K@ 75.0¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$10.3K@ 68.5¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYAndrey Rublev$10.6K@ 70.0¢
askilika0x0979…8d9b
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

askilikaAndrey Rublev$60.7K
BUY VWAP 70.9¢·8 fills
UpTheBluesAndrey Rublev$23.6K
BUY VWAP 64.7¢·15 fills
quavooAndrey Rublev$13.4K
BUY VWAP 47.0¢·5 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.