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Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $253.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $618.7KEvent: Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaume Munar
92.5¢
Carlos Alcaraz
7.5¢
Jaume Munar
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection33Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets56Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution86Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority65Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 88%💡 13 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:207 trades$278.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 51%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 10 min agoofficial metadata 1 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Carlos Alcaraz · $43.4K net·13 wallets(1🐋)·$80.4K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCarlos Alcaraz$24.7K@ 88¢·0F62

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Carlos Alcaraz pressure: $89.8K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$89.8K
6h
+$153.2K
tracked
$278.4K

13 verified profitable wallets: Carlos Alcaraz · $43.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 88% · priority 65

Since latest liquidity absorption: +22.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Executable BUY price moved 22.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Carlos Alcaraz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 07:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jaume Munar in the Japan Open Tennis Championships, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 3:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Jaume Munar. This market will resolve to 'Jaume Munar' if Jaume Munar advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 71.0¢47m ago
15m INVALIDATED -6.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 94.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -44.0pp1h INVALIDATED -29.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Carlos Alcaraz@ 88.0¢6h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
Latest book event: Jaume Munar DOWN 4.0pp · near-book depth $10.3K → $20.6K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Carlos Alcaraz; negative values favor Jaume Munar. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCarlos Alcaraz · $89.8K
6hCarlos Alcaraz · $153.2K
24hCarlos Alcaraz · $191.1K

Carlos Alcaraz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Carlos Alcaraz price. Jaume Munar fills are converted to the complementary Carlos Alcaraz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current92.5¢
VWAP 24h72.7¢▲ above by 19.9pp
VWAP 7d72.7¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Carlos Alcaraz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
← now
$34.7K
85¢
$46.6K
80¢
$6.6K
75¢
$17.5K
70¢
$38.7K
65¢
$55.5K
60¢
$32.3K
55¢
$38.3K
50¢
$8.3K
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 65¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

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Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$20.0K@ 61.6¢0x760f…326a🐋—39 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$18.9K@ 66.0¢
formyfamilia0xbdd4…56f1
🐋—43 minutes ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$13.3K@ 93.0¢
coinlaundry0xe8d7…1252
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$24.7K@ 88.0¢
0F620xccd8…f4de
🐋—about 8 hours ago
BUYCarlos Alcaraz$12.0K@ 88.3¢
0000.0x49e0…9af1
🐋—about 12 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0F62Carlos Alcaraz$24.7K
BUY VWAP 88.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardCarlos Alcaraz$24.6K
BUY VWAP 64.0¢·5 fills
coinlaundryCarlos Alcaraz$20.0K
BUY VWAP 93.3¢·2 fills
0x760f…326aCarlos Alcaraz$20.0K
BUY VWAP 61.6¢·1 fill
neutralwave23Carlos Alcaraz$19.5K
BUY VWAP 73.4¢·14 fills
formyfamiliaCarlos Alcaraz$18.9K
BUY VWAP 66.0¢·1 fill
0000.Carlos Alcaraz$12.0K
BUY VWAP 88.3¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardJaume Munar$10.3K
BUY VWAP 37.9¢·4 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.