Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?

Crypto→Closes: about 4 hoursLiquidity: $524.1KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.1MEvent: Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?

99.9¢

0.1¢

Down

Historical analytics · no executable quote

24h sample:300 trades$418.4K tracked3% 🐋source coverage 39%BUY/SELL known 100%

tape 39 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago

Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Up · $3.5K net·6 wallets·$6.3K gross

Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYUp$56.4K@ 100¢·kaanha

Decision read paused

Market status is DISPUTED. No executable setup is shown until trading is open again.

DISPUTED

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution

DISPUTED

Trading

Orders paused

Deadline

2026-10-05 16:00 UTC

Event constraint

Not verified

Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26.

•This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26.

Read full resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is lower than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on Oct 4 '26 is higher than the final "Close" price for the candle closing at 12:00 ET on Oct 5 '26. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

MARKET SWEEPBUY Up@ 99.7¢2h ago

15m UNAVAILABLE1h UNAVAILABLE

Latest book event: Down DOWN 22.4pp · near-book depth $38 → $146 · 26s

Outcome Price History

Execution status

Market disputed · the orderbook is not executable.

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.disputed

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Up; negative values favor Down. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.

1hUp · $4.0K

6hUp · $147.2K

24hUp · $149.5K

Up price VWAP

Volume-weighted Up price. Down fills are converted to the complementary Up probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.

Current99.9¢

VWAP 24h64.9¢▲ above by 35.0pp

VWAP 7d64.8¢

Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Up price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢

← now

$236.9K

90¢

$2.9K

85¢

$3.0K

80¢

$2.9K