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China Open: Coco Gauff vs Xinran Sun

● quote 13s ago
Sports→Closes: 6 daysLiquidity: $319.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $732.5KEvent: China Open: Coco Gauff vs Xinran Sun
100.0¢
Coco Gauff
0.1¢
Xinran Sun
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection20Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets76Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution99Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 83%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:192 trades$234.4K tracked2% 🐋source coverage 32%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 2 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Coco Gauff · $35.4K net·12 wallets·$46.6K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYCoco Gauff$27.1K@ 92¢·neutralwave23

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

TOO LATE — DO NOT CHASE
What the tape says

Coco Gauff pressure: $46.7K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$46.7K
6h
+$123.5K
tracked
$234.4K

12 verified profitable wallets: Coco Gauff · $35.4K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 83% · priority 0

Since latest large flow: +11.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.
  • •Executable BUY price moved 11.0pp since the latest alert; its original entry no longer exists.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Coco Gauff or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 03:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.wtatennis.com/scores
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Xinran Sun in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 4, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Coco Gauff' if Coco Gauff advances against Xinran Sun. This market will resolve to 'Xinran Sun' if Xinran Sun advances against Coco Gauff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LARGE FLOWBUY Coco Gauff@ 89.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -5.0pp1h CONFIRMED +9.5pp
Latest book event: Coco Gauff UP 2.5pp · near-book depth $8.1K → $2.6K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.climax

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Coco Gauff; negative values favor Xinran Sun. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hCoco Gauff · $46.7K
6hCoco Gauff · $123.5K
24hCoco Gauff · $132.0K

Coco Gauff price VWAP

Volume-weighted Coco Gauff price. Xinran Sun fills are converted to the complementary Coco Gauff probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h92.5¢▲ above by 7.5pp
VWAP 7d92.5¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Coco Gauff price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$91.8K
90¢
$87.7K
85¢
$23.9K
80¢
$15.4K
75¢
$13.1K
70¢
$2.5K
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 95¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYCoco Gauff$22.5K@ 98.8¢
hd7770x986b…bdc6
🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYCoco Gauff$11.8K@ 98.0¢
Gumayusi980x5bc6…eff4
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLCoco Gauff$11.6K@ 95.0¢
sfedk0xee97…11e9
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYCoco Gauff$27.1K@ 92.3¢
neutralwave230x5b63…11a4
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

neutralwave23Coco Gauff$28.5K
BUY VWAP 92.0¢·2 fills
hd777Coco Gauff$28.4K
BUY VWAP 98.8¢·2 fills
UpTheBluesCoco Gauff$25.1K
BUY VWAP 94.6¢·8 fills
0x08a3…8666Coco Gauff$13.6K
BUY VWAP 93.1¢·3 fills
Gumayusi98Coco Gauff$11.8K
BUY VWAP 98.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.