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Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: about 8 hoursLiquidity: $855.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $391.1KEvent: Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage
62.5¢
Spirit
37.5¢
MOUZ
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly11Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection0Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets67Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 75%💡 2 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:50 trades$160.1K tracked8% 🐋source coverage 41%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 25 min agoofficial metadata 3 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:MOUZ · $9.2K net·2 wallets·$9.2K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYSpirit$45.0K@ 65¢·retordedgremlin125

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

No material 1h direction in the tracked BUY/SELL sample.

1h
+$501
6h
−$27.3K
tracked
$160.1K

2 verified profitable wallets: MOUZ · $9.2K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 75% · priority 0

Since latest liquidity absorption: +0.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 25 minutes old.
  • •Less than 8h remains; resolution risk is elevated.

Stronger read requires meaningful signed flow plus confirmation across distinct observed wallets.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-05 20:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://hltv.org
Outcome meaning

•This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ.

•This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit.

Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Spirit and MOUZ in the ESL Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Spirit. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 19, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 5, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

LIQUIDITY ABSORPTIONBUY MOUZ@ 38.0¢1h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY MOUZ@ 38.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h STALLED -1.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Spirit@ 65.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -1.0pp1h INVALIDATED -3.0pp

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

LifecycleCanonical market state overrides the analytics stage after resolution. discovery/climax/resolving describe open-market analytics only; resolved/void are terminal states.resolving

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Spirit; negative values favor MOUZ. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hSpirit · $501
6hMOUZ · $27.3K
24hMOUZ · $23.3K

Spirit price VWAP

Volume-weighted Spirit price. MOUZ fills are converted to the complementary Spirit probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current62.5¢
VWAP 24h63.8¢▼ below by 1.3pp
VWAP 7d63.8¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Spirit price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$50.7K
60¢
← now
$109.3K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYMOUZ$20.0K@ 38.0¢0xf559…f462🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYMOUZ$38.0K@ 37.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYMOUZ$16.0K@ 36.0¢
Lakersfan1110x6ac5…4b6e
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYSpirit$45.0K@ 65.0¢
retordedgremlin1250xf0b6…2fef
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

Lakersfan111MOUZ$54.0K
BUY VWAP 36.7¢·2 fills
retordedgremlin125Spirit$50.6K
BUY VWAP 64.9¢·2 fills
0xf559…f462MOUZ$20.0K
BUY VWAP 38.0¢·1 fill
TrippleEXSpirit$12.9K
BUY VWAP 64.4¢·2 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.