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Villena: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Luca Nardi

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $79.2KOfficial 24h Vol: $464.5KEvent: Villena: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Luca Nardi
100.0¢
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
0.1¢
Luca Nardi
0.1¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets70Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution96Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority0Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 84%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:76 trades$162.6K tracked9% 🐋source coverage 35%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 3 min agoofficial metadata 39s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Pablo Llamas Ruiz · $10.3K net·12 wallets·$14.7K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYLuca Nardi$22.3K@ 39¢·kdvlklkvlsklkfs

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Pablo Llamas Ruiz pressure: $7.6K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$7.6K
6h
−$131.0K
tracked
$162.6K

12 verified profitable wallets: Pablo Llamas Ruiz · $10.3K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.1¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 84% · priority 0

Since latest position change: -34.9pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Price is near 0/100¢; headline flow can have little remaining payoff.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Pablo Llamas Ruiz or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Luca Nardi in the Villena, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Luca Nardi. This market will resolve to 'Luca Nardi' if Luca Nardi advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

POSITION CHANGEBUY Luca Nardi@ 35.0¢1h ago
15m INVALIDATED -16.0pp1h INVALIDATED -18.0pp
ACCUMULATIONBUY Luca Nardi@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Nardi@ 39.0¢2h ago
15m INVALIDATED -18.0pp1h INVALIDATED -26.0pp
LARGE FLOWBUY Luca Nardi@ 38.0¢2h ago
15m STALLED -2.0pp1h INVALIDATED -23.0pp
Latest book event: Pablo Llamas Ruiz DOWN 8.0pp · near-book depth $23.8K → $50.9K · 5s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Pablo Llamas Ruiz; negative values favor Luca Nardi. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hPablo Llamas Ruiz · $7.6K
6hLuca Nardi · $131.0K
24hLuca Nardi · $131.0K

Pablo Llamas Ruiz price VWAP

Volume-weighted Pablo Llamas Ruiz price. Luca Nardi fills are converted to the complementary Pablo Llamas Ruiz probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current100.0¢
VWAP 24h64.2¢▲ above by 35.7pp
VWAP 7d64.2¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Pablo Llamas Ruiz price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
← now
$4.1K
90¢
$2.2K
85¢
$4.5K
80¢
$1.6K
75¢
$3.9K
70¢
$6
65¢
$721
60¢
$145.6K
55¢
$0
50¢
$0
45¢
$0
40¢
$0
35¢
$0
30¢
$0
25¢
$0
20¢
$0
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 60¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYLuca Nardi$22.3K@ 38.8¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuca Nardi$19.9K@ 37.8¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYLuca Nardi$15.4K@ 39.0¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Nardi$16.4K@ 38.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Nardi$18.6K@ 38.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Nardi$17.4K@ 38.0¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYLuca Nardi$15.8K@ 36.9¢
kdvlklkvlsklkfs0xcfe8…3a6c
🐋—about 2 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

kdvlklkvlsklkfsLuca Nardi$143.4K
BUY VWAP 38.3¢·14 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.