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Braga: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moeller

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $225.7KOfficial 24h Vol: $676.8KEvent: Braga: Thiago Monteiro vs Elmer Moeller
41.6¢
Thiago Monteiro
58.4¢
Elmer Moeller
0.8¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection6Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets84Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution84Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority62Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 77%💡 12 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:154 trades$321.1K tracked6% 🐋source coverage 47%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 11 min agoofficial metadata 15s ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Elmer Moeller · $183.9K net·12 wallets(3🐋)·$218.9K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYElmer Moeller$32.9K@ 74¢·ferrariChampions2026

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WAIT — EVIDENCE TOO THIN
What the tape says

Elmer Moeller pressure: $20.0K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
−$20.0K
6h
−$212.9K
tracked
$321.1K

12 verified profitable wallets: Elmer Moeller · $183.9K net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
0.8¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 77% · priority 62

Since latest accumulation: -11.2pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •Observed tape is 11 minutes old.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Elmer Moeller or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 09:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Monteiro and Elmer Moeller in the Braga, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Monteiro' if Thiago Monteiro advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Thiago Monteiro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Elmer Moeller47m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Elmer Moeller50m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Elmer Moeller50m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Elmer Moeller@ 70.0¢1h ago
15m CONFIRMED +16.0pp1h INVALIDATED -5.8pp
Latest book event: Thiago Monteiro UP 13.2pp · near-book depth $24 → $17.3K · 16s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Thiago Monteiro; negative values favor Elmer Moeller. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hElmer Moeller · $20.0K
6hElmer Moeller · $212.9K
24hElmer Moeller · $212.9K

Thiago Monteiro price VWAP

Volume-weighted Thiago Monteiro price. Elmer Moeller fills are converted to the complementary Thiago Monteiro probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current41.6¢
VWAP 24h26.6¢▲ above by 15.0pp
VWAP 7d26.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

Loading…

Thiago Monteiro price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
$0
65¢
$0
60¢
$0
55¢
$1.2K
50¢
$6.5K
45¢
$1.4K
40¢
← now
$18.1K
35¢
$3.4K
30¢
$3.2K
25¢
$258.9K
20¢
$13.4K
15¢
$254
10¢
$134
5¢
$4.8K
0¢
$9.9K

VPOC = 25¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYElmer Moeller$16.0K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$16.0K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$20.7K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$14.1K@ 74.0¢
RN10x2005…75ea
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$15.9K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$32.9K@ 74.0¢
ferrariChampions20260xfe78…0319
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYElmer Moeller$11.0K@ 74.0¢0x076d…8d4c🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYThiago Monteiro$20.4K@ 25.0¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 1 hour ago
SELLElmer Moeller$10.2K@ 75.0¢
Vps10xb2d2…3910
🐋—about 1 hour ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

ferrariChampions2026Elmer Moeller$101.6K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·5 fills
RN1Elmer Moeller$36.6K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·7 fills
UpTheBluesElmer Moeller$23.1K
BUY VWAP 77.0¢·18 fills
Vps1Thiago Monteiro$20.4K
BUY VWAP 25.0¢·1 fill
HomeRunHazardElmer Moeller$19.5K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·16 fills
0xe911…3d4eElmer Moeller$11.1K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·2 fills
0x076d…8d4cElmer Moeller$11.0K
BUY VWAP 74.0¢·1 fill

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.