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China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev

● quote just now
Sports→Closes: 7 daysLiquidity: $166.6KOfficial 24h Vol: $1.7MEvent: China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev
70.5¢
Novak Djokovic
29.5¢
Daniil Medvedev
1.0¢
Spread
anomaly100Activity anomaly — current observed activity versus the market baselinedirection5Direction — strength and consistency of signed flow between the two outcomeswallets3Wallet quality — contribution from verified profitable non-bot walletsexecution93Execution — spread, depth and quote quality; not expected valuepriority44Opportunity priority — ranking score, not predicted return or edgedata 86%💡 18 smartMeasured profitable wallets: positive real PnL, 20+ trades, non-bot
24h sample:348 trades$763.8K tracked4% 🐋source coverage 44%BUY/SELL known 100%
tape 1 min agoofficial metadata 4 min ago
Profitable-wallet flow · 7d:Novak Djokovic · $903 net·18 wallets·$124.1K gross
Largest observed trade · 30d:BUYDaniil Medvedev$47.7K@ 56¢·0xe30e…6b87

Decision read

Evidence and execution checklist — not a trade recommendation

WATCH — NO CONFIRMED SETUP
What the tape says

Novak Djokovic pressure: $36.5K net directional flow in 1h.

1h
+$36.5K
6h
−$15.9K
tracked
$763.8K

18 verified profitable wallets: Novak Djokovic · $903 net over 7d.

Can it be executed?
1.0¢displayed spread

Tight displayed spread; depth and partial-fill risk still matter.

Data confidence 86% · priority 44

Since latest accumulation: -23.0pp at executable prices.

Priority ranks review urgency; it is not probability or expected value.

Risks / missing evidence
  • •No hard data-quality flag; still verify rules, news and orderbook depth.

The read weakens if 1h flow flips away from Novak Djokovic or execution deteriorates.

Resolution & market truth

Verify what settles the market before reading flow as a thesis

Resolution
OPEN
Trading
Orders accepted
Deadline
2026-10-12 11:00 UTC
Event constraint
Not verified
Resolution source: https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current
Read full resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev in the China Open, originally scheduled for October 5, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Novak Djokovic' if Novak Djokovic advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Novak Djokovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Evidence receipts

Timestamped alerts and their measured outcomes; losses and unavailable checks remain visible

ANTI CHASEBUY Novak Djokovic11m ago
Outcome checks pending
ANTI CHASEBUY Daniil Medvedev26m ago
Outcome checks pending
ACCUMULATIONBUY Daniil Medvedev@ 53.0¢37m ago
15m INVALIDATED -8.0pp
POSITION CHANGEBUY Novak Djokovic@ 46.0¢41m ago
15m STALLED +2.0pp
Latest book event: Daniil Medvedev UP 5.0pp · near-book depth $23 → $16.2K · 4s

Outcome Price History

Executable orderbook · both outcomes
Loading executable orderbook…

Signals Trend

Market Analytics

Signed Order Flow

Directional flow: positive values favor Novak Djokovic; negative values favor Daniil Medvedev. Only trades with known BUY/SELL action are included.
1hNovak Djokovic · $36.5K
6hDaniil Medvedev · $15.9K
24hDaniil Medvedev · $7.2K

Novak Djokovic price VWAP

Volume-weighted Novak Djokovic price. Daniil Medvedev fills are converted to the complementary Novak Djokovic probability before aggregation. Distance from VWAP is displacement, not an overbought/oversold signal.
Current70.5¢
VWAP 24h43.6¢▲ above by 26.9pp
VWAP 7d43.6¢
Largest observed holdersActual token balances from Polymarket's holders endpoint. Coverage is limited to the top 20 holders per outcome; percentages are within the reported sample, not total supply.

Largest holders

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Novak Djokovic price Volume Profile · tracked 30d

95¢
$0
90¢
$0
85¢
$0
80¢
$0
75¢
$0
70¢
← now
$0
65¢
$50.1K
60¢
$6.3K
55¢
$10.1K
50¢
$31.3K
45¢
$225.8K
40¢
$272.2K
35¢
$71.5K
30¢
$42.9K
25¢
$2.5K
20¢
$51.2K
15¢
$0
10¢
$0
5¢
$0
0¢
$0

VPOC = 40¢ · highlighted bar = current price · blue bar = VPOC

Observed net position building

Loading…
Observed Tape · BUY/SELL shown outcome · retained 30dupdated less than a minute ago
Loading trades…
🐋 Large Trades$10,000+ · retained 30dBUY/SELL shown outcomeΔ now
BUYDaniil Medvedev$20.0K@ 48.0¢0x760f…326a🐋—21 minutes ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$45.6K@ 47.0¢
BillyGating0x2dfa…6f60
🐋—40 minutes ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$32.4K@ 54.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—41 minutes ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$47.6K@ 40.0¢
BillyGating0x2dfa…6f60
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$27.6K@ 23.0¢
optimusprime7778790x922c…d8ba
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$24.2K@ 61.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$27.8K@ 65.6¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$12.5K@ 63.9¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$39.2K@ 60.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$47.7K@ 56.0¢0xe30e…6b87🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$12.7K@ 43.0¢
BillyGating0x2dfa…6f60
🐋—about 1 hour ago
BUYDaniil Medvedev$18.1K@ 56.0¢
Vanchalkenstein0x9c16…09cb
🐋—about 2 hours ago
BUYNovak Djokovic$12.2K@ 44.0¢
CORGI80x79ae…9a4a
🐋—about 3 hours ago

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Observed whale buys · 7d

Aggregated BUY fills of $10K+ per wallet and outcome

0xe30e…6b87Daniil Medvedev$198.2K
BUY VWAP 59.2¢·8 fills
BillyGatingNovak Djokovic$174.8K
BUY VWAP 43.4¢·17 fills
optimusprime777879Novak Djokovic$27.6K
BUY VWAP 23.0¢·1 fill
0x2c33…0563Novak Djokovic$20.4K
BUY VWAP 44.8¢·6 fills
UpTheBluesDaniil Medvedev$20.3K
BUY VWAP 72.0¢·7 fills
0x760f…326aDaniil Medvedev$20.0K
BUY VWAP 48.0¢·1 fill
VanchalkensteinDaniil Medvedev$18.1K
BUY VWAP 56.0¢·1 fill
UpTheBluesNovak Djokovic$17.7K
BUY VWAP 45.4¢·8 fills
neutralwave23Novak Djokovic$16.8K
BUY VWAP 62.7¢·7 fills
kdvlklkvlsklkfsDaniil Medvedev$15.6K
BUY VWAP 34.4¢·3 fills

Observed BUY activity; current holdings and position change may be unconfirmed.